Knight Frank has unveiled its H1 2024 Kampala Property Market Performance Review, providing a comprehensive analysis and outlook on the city’s property sectors from January to July 2024. This detailed report sheds light on the performance of the Office, Residential, Retail, and Industrial property markets, contextualized against Uganda’s economic performance during the same period.
The report highlights a robust economic performance, with Uganda’s GDP growing at 6% in FY 2023/2024. Projections indicate an acceleration in economic growth, reaching between 6.4% and 7% in FY 2024/25. This growth trajectory is anticipated to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels, with the potential for double-digit growth in the medium term. The 2024 population census, as reported by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), reveals a significant increase in population, now at 45.9 million, up from 34.6 million in 2014, reflecting an 11.3 million increase and a 2.9% growth rate.
Residential Market
The prime residential sector experienced a marked slowdown in H1 2024. The volume of sales and lettings diminished, leading to a slight 1% decrease in occupancy levels compared to H1 2023. This trend reflects a buyer’s market, where supply has outpaced demand, causing a sluggish start that persisted throughout the half-year.
Office Market
The commercial office sector mirrored the residential market’s sluggishness, with reduced sales and lettings volumes compared to the same period last year. Despite this, demand for prime office space remained stable, with prime net rents recorded at $16.5 and $15.0 per square meter per month for Grade A and Grade AB spaces, respectively. A slight decline in occupancy levels was observed, with vacancy rates increasing by 1% compared to H1 2023. However, smaller office spaces (50-150 sqm) continued to see steady demand from sectors such as IT/Telecom, retail, legal services, business and professional services, energy, industrial, and financial services.
Retail Market
In contrast, the retail sector demonstrated impressive performance in the first half of 2024. The sector benefited from a resilient economy, with increased occupancy levels driven by new market entrants, the expansion of existing retailers, and strong product and tenant-mix offerings within various malls. Key retail events, including back-to-school, Valentine’s Day, Easter, and Eid, further boosted sector performance. Notable improvements were recorded in footfall, turnover, and occupancy levels, with general retail turnover surging by 30%, footfall growing by 5.0%, and occupancy levels increasing by 3.0%.
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